cover image for Same as Ever

Same as Ever

Morgan Housel

8/10
Great book detailing patterns that have been true throughout most of recorded history and the psychological concepts in humans that make them true.

  • Everything is a tiny thread. Some of the most important decisions in hindsight will probably incredibly minor and random in the moment.

  • Base predictions on how people behave rather than what will happen.

  • Risk is unknown, prepare for risk in general including stuff you can't predict. Not specific things that you can anticipate because you will miss things. Have a bit more savings than you're comfortable with.

  • Lower your expectations to be happier. Don't wish to be happier than others by comparison.

  • Miracles happen all the time, that's how math, time and lots of people work together.

  • World breaks about once every 10 years. We are so connected that you hear about it more often but it's not different than before

      • Tiny good or bad things compounded / chain react / domino create things best or worst (statistically because of how many people and chance you will run into 7 backups failing at once to create a catastrophe)
      • Small high probability bad events will create big awful events about once a decade

  • People don't want accuracy they want certainty (this isn't possible)

  • Best story wins

    • If a story in complex, good stories make it easier to understand and more compelling
    • How many products exist but could sell 100 x of someone explained them better
    • Who has the right answer but I ignore because they aren't compelling
    • Power of stories over statistics

  • Sometimes things you can't measure and will surprise you

    • Leimam brothers, faith until not. GameStop is the reverse.
    • It's all about your hopes, fear and tribal affiliations and others and the stories around them.

  • What's rational to one person might be insane to another. People have different, time horizons, risk tolerances, goals and ambitions.

  • Greed and fear, cycle ***

    • Assume good news is permeant,
    • Ignore bad news
    • Deny bad news
    • Panic bad news
    • Accept bad news
    • Assume bad is permanent
    • Oblivious to good news
    • Ignore good news
    • Deny good news
    • Accept good news
    • Assume good news is permanent

  • Surprise characteristics

    • Poor incentives
    • Incomplete information
    • Chance
    • Uncertainty
    • Randomness

  • Stability is destabilizing

    • Calm sews the seeds of crazy
    • Valuations get bid up and everyone thinks we're only up from here and over invests and this the markets are super high and then are this super sensitive to minor bad news which is unstable
    • Greed causes the boom bust cycle. Get content with enough

  • A good idea on steroids becomes a terrible idea. The good idea but can I have it faster is bad

  • Stress focuses you in ways good times can't. War time innovations

  • Good news takes time (usually compounding) - also usually complex and involves lots of research or cooperation.

  • bad news happens instantly (loss of confidence or catastrophic error) - simpler, can be one fewer people,

    • More attention to bad because it's fast

  • You need to maintain that things will get better while expecting the process to be there to be awful.

    • Planning like a pessimist and dreaming like an optimist

  • Don't try to be 100% perfect at 1 thing. Comes at the expense of other things and then dies due to over emphasis on 1 thing that isn't as needed later.

  • Hacks and short cuts tends to cause issues

  • You should identify the optimal amount of BS and nonsense and inefficiency that you can put up with while getting ahead and getting along

  • The grass is always greener on the side that's fertilized with bullshit

    • It's easiest to convince someone they're special the less well you know them
    • If someone is accomplishing something extraordinary, odds are they have struggles behind closed doors
    • People who are abnormally good at one thing tend to be abnormally bad at others

  • Incentives are super powerful and can get people to justify or do almost anything (can be financial, cultural, tribal, believing what you want to believe)

  • Nothing is more persuasive than what you've experienced first hand

  • For things you consume, filter is will I care about this in 5 years? 10 years?

  • Wounds heal, scars last. The pain of 9/11. Is largely gone but the effects are still felt throughout any airports security.

    • You feelings will fade but your response actions may not
    • Aggressive trauma can kinda change you for life (Trauma survivors gain habits that follow them through life and typically cause issues when they're out of their traumatic situation)

  • What have you experienced that I haven't that makes you think like I do. Uncomfortable because it makes you opinions feel wishy washy (because they are)

;